Hudson Institute suggests a Crimea First strategy for Ukraine

One of the leading US think tanks, Hudson Institute, has published an article “A Crimea First Strategy for Ukraine” where Senior Fellow Luke Coffey calls on the USA to adhere to the strategy of prioritizing the deoccupation of Crimea. The author suggests four stages for the deoccupation of the peninsula:

1. Rearming, resupplying, and training the Ukrainian military to stabilize the front lines in 2024 and prepare for counteroffensive operations in 2025. This includes providing Ukraine with large numbers of long-range fires such as the 190-mile version of the ATACMS; additional air-launched cruise missiles from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and others; F-16s and associated munitions; more infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks; demining and engineering equipment; more air defense systems; a steady stream of 155mm artillery and 120mm mortar rounds. The US and its allies should continue to train tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in maneuver warfare.

2. Enabling Ukraine to pursue a Crimea-first strategy that stipulates arming Ukraine with the necessary weapons to destroy all bridges connected to the peninsula, making bases in Crimea uninhabitable for Russian forces and, further on, striking key facilities inside the Russian Federation, especially along the Black Sea coastline.

3.  Isolating Crimea from Russia. Ukraine needs the ability to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Additional bridge targets include the Henichesk, Syvash, and Chonhar Bridges, which connect occupied Crimea to Kherson Oblast.

4.   Targeting Russian bases. Occupied Crimea and Russia’s Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai are home to several naval and air bases. The US and its allies need to arm Ukraine to make these bases uninhabitable for Russian forces.

As Luke Coffey puts it, “Ukraine will never be safe until Russia loses control of Crimea. Policymakers in the United States should recognize that the most direct path to victory for Ukraine runs through Crimea—so they should arm, train, and equip Ukrainians accordingly. Russia’s war on Ukraine began with the annexation of Crimea, and it will only end when Ukraine regains control of it.”