04 June 2024

The Economist: The Crimean peninsula is becoming a death trap for the Kremlin’s forces

Source: The Economist, http://surl.li/ueaua

1. Biden has eased restrictions on the use of US weapons against military targets on Russian territory that are attacking or preparing to attack Kharkiv. However, he has not yet lifted his ban on hitting targets in other parts of Russia. For an indication of what Ukraine might achieve if it no longer had to fight with one hand tied behind its back, the effectiveness of its campaign in Crimea shows the way. According to Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe and a senior adviser to nato on logistics, the Ukrainians are “systematically in the process of making Ukraine uninhabitable for Russian forces”.

2. General Ben Hodges is confident that the Ukrainians will “take down the Kerch Bridge when they are ready”. However, a potentially greater challenge [for russians] will be disrupting the new improved railway line running along the Azov Sea from Rostov through the southern Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Berdiansk down into Crimea. Dmitry Pletenchuk, a spokesman for Ukraine’s southern military command, says:  “The railway along the land corridor is recognition on the part of the Russian occupiers that the Crimean [Kerch] Bridge is doomed. They are looking for a way to hedge their bets because they are aware that sooner or later, they will have a problem.”

3. Sir Lawrence Freedman, a British strategist says that Crimea is a weak point for Russia. It has too much there to defend, and it is the best way for Ukraine to put real pressure on Mr Putin in order to extract concessions in the future. Nico Lange, a former adviser to the German defence ministry, agrees: “Ukraine’s campaign is a mixture of a military and political strategy. Politically, [Crimea] it is Russia’s most vital asset; but it is also very vulnerable.” What Ukraine is attempting to do is to make Crimea a liability rather than an asset for Mr Putin. The aim is to isolate it and in doing so to push Russian air and sea forces away from southern Ukraine and strangle it as a logistics hub.