11 November 2024

Ukraine’s Role in Shifting the Balance of Power in the Black Sea: Analysis from the “Middle East Institute”

“By effectively countering Russia’s naval power, Ukraine has reshaped the strategic landscape of the Black Sea, creating new opportunities for regional cooperation and security,” the Middle East Institute stated.

The American think tank Middle East Institute has published an article titled “Ukraine’s Role in the Black Sea: Navigating a Geopolitical Crossroads” by Yuri Lyashenko, a research fellow at the National Democratic Institute in Washington, D.C. The article emphasizes that the Black Sea has become one of the most significant and dynamic regions in global geopolitics, with Ukraine playing a pivotal role in shifting the balance of naval power and significantly reducing Russia’s influence in the region.

According to the Middle East Institute, since the beginning of the full-scale war in 2022, Ukraine has substantially weakened Russia’s Black Sea Fleet by employing innovative asymmetric warfare tactics and Western-supplied weaponry. Specifically, using the Harpoon missiles and drones, Ukraine has carried out precise strikes on strategic Russian targets without engaging in direct combat. The destruction of the flagship cruiser Moskva in April 2022, the attack on the Sevastopol Shipyard, and the strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in September 2023 have been critical milestones in reducing Russia’s naval capabilities.

“Ukraine, despite its limited naval capabilities, has halved the Russian Black Sea Fleet since Feb. 24, 2022, reducing it from 80 warships to 40, thanks to the successful use of unmanned drones and shore-launched cruise missiles,” reports the Middle East Institute.

As a result of Ukraine’s military actions in the Black Sea region, Russia’s naval activities have been largely confined to limited operations from Crimea, and there are practically no remaining Russian naval forces in the western part of the Black Sea. However, Russia continues to use the Crimean Peninsula as a military base to launch attacks on mainland Ukraine and destabilize the region. For this reason, the de-occupation of Crimea remains a critical objective that can be realized with Western support.

“Ukraine needs sustained Western support to be able to continue to protect its territorial waters, hold the Russian Navy back, and ideally reclaim Crimea,” states Yuri Lyashenko.

The Middle East Institute asserts that Ukraine is strengthening its defensive capabilities and regional stability in the Black Sea through military, diplomatic, and financial aid from allies. The weakening of Russia’s navy has enabled neighboring countries, such as Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria, to enhance their economic and energy activities, thereby contributing to regional security.

Read the full article here: Ukraine’s Role in the Black Sea: Navigating a Geopolitical Crossroads | Middle East Institute.