22 July 2024
Russia’s Retreat from Crimea Makes a Mockery of the West’s Escalation Fears, — Atlantic Council
The American think tank Atlantic Council has published an article, “Russia’s Retreat from Crimea Mocks Western Fears of Conflict Escalation,” by UkraineAlert editor Peter Dickinson. The article highlights Ukraine’s success in the strategic struggle for the Black Sea and Crimea.
The author mentions that this week was another milestone in the battle for the Black Sea, as the Russian Navy withdrew its last patrol ship from the occupied Crimea. Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk made the announcement, emphasizing the historical importance of this event in a social media post: “The last patrol ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is leaving our Crimea right now. Remember this day.”
Ukraine’s military campaign began with the sinking of the cruiser Moskva in 2022 and continued with strikes using drones and Western missiles that damaged or sunk about a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
“The withdrawal of Russian warships from Crimea is the latest indication that against all odds, Ukraine is actually winning the war at sea,” the author states.
The article claims that Western hesitation to support Ukraine fully only prolongs the conflict, potentially benefiting Russia. Instead, firm support, such as the provision of British and French cruise missiles, and military innovation allow Ukraine to use new means to achieve its goals:
“The results speak for themselves. When the full-scale invasion began, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had seventy-four warships, most of which were based at ports in Russian-occupied Crimea. In a little over two years, Ukraine managed to sink or damage around one-third of these ships.”
The author emphasizes that the success in the Black Sea has yielded many results for Ukraine: it has disrupted Russian logistics and prevented the resupply of Russian troops in southern Ukraine while limiting Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine from warships armed with cruise missiles. It also allowed the blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to be broken and commercial shipping to resume through the new sea corridor:
“As a result, Ukrainian agricultural exports are now close to prewar levels, providing Kyiv with a vital economic lifeline.”
The article notes that the success of the Ukrainian forces showed Russia’s actual reaction and the emptiness of Putin’s nuclear threats. Instead of nuclear escalation, he ordered the remaining ships to retreat from Crimea:
“This underwhelming response is all the more telling given the symbolic significance of Crimea to the Putin regime. The Russian invasion of Ukraine first began in spring 2014 with the seizure of Crimea, which occupies an almost mystical position in Russian national folklore as the home of the country’s Black Sea Fleet. Throughout the past decade, the occupied Ukrainian peninsula has featured heavily in Kremlin propaganda trumpeting Russia’s return to Great Power status, and has come to symbolize Putin’s personal claim to a place in Russian history.”